The challenges to economic, social and political development are complex and, therefore, unpredictable (Ramalingam and Jones, 2008). As many commentators have argued, effective programming by governments, non-governmental organisations and international agencies requires a shift in emphasis – moving away from a heavy reliance on planning and ex-ante analysis towards monitoring, learning and adaptation (Jones, 2011). How, then, can policy makers, managers and practitioners best plan in the face of complexity? Does complexity make planning an irrelevant exercise?