The climate crisis is increasing the intensity and frequency of events such as storms, floods and wildfires, events that are pushing more people into extreme poverty. Policymakers need an accurate and reliable understanding of how climate change will impact efforts to end extreme poverty. However, the data available is insufficient and lacks transparency for projecting extreme poverty accurately.
In this briefing, Development Initiatives (DI) explores the World Bank's climate change poverty forecasts, and some of the key assumptions underpinning them.The World Bank's modelling makes it clear that climate change will have a material impact on the number of people falling into poverty, yet estimates are based on limited or inconclusive data, resulting in wide ranges of uncertainty of these impacts. his paper demonstrates that poverty projections for the next seven years vary significantly, even before considering the possible impacts of climate change.
