Working paper 580
The term ‘anticipatory action’ (AA) refers to actions triggered before a crisis in order to mitigate the worst effects of the crisis, or even avoid crisis altogether. While substantial progress has been made in reducing the devastating impacts of drought, most anticipatory actions taken to protect livelihoods have been on a small or pilot scale, and on an ad hoc project basis. In many crises, humanitarian responses still arrive late. Decisions on how to protect livelihoods continue to be taken when a crisis is already happening and delays in mobilising funds to respond are commonplace.
This paper demonstrates how a crisis calendar can be used to identify when decisions around livelihood protection for drought need to be taken in order to be effective. Understanding the window(s) of opportunity is critical to the success of AA. The paper identifies six AA modalities to help protect livelihoods ahead of a forecasted crisis.
Key messages
- Humanitarian agencies have been making the case for taking action before crises hit, but it is long-term actors (such as governments and service providers) who have responsibility for most anticipatory actions. • ‘Anticipatory action’ is usually used to refer to an assistance project with dedicated funding, but other actions are needed to protect livelihoods ahead of a crisis. These include providing information so people can take informed decisions about their own anticipatory actions; investing in preparedness; and redirecting resources away from previously planned interventions towards actions in the same sector that can mitigate a predicted crisis. • To achieve the potential benefits, a system-wide change is needed in how anticipatory action is thought about and used, moving from a focus on delivering relief earlier to a nexus approach with shared responsibility between government departments, development partners and humanitarian agencies. • Each action needs to be more than just relevant and effective – it needs to be timely. Understanding windows of opportunity is as critical to the success of anticipatory action as determining the kinds of activities that can help reduce human suffering. • More attention needs to be paid to understanding the accuracy of weather and crisis forecasts, as the ability to invest resources in advance of a crisis ultimately rests on confidence in these forecasts.