In July 2012, ODI Horizon 2025: creative destruction in the aid industry, which analysed some of the major forces shaping change in development cooperation, as we knew it then. Five years on they look again at our 2012 scenarios. 2017 is a milesteone shrouded in great uncertainty arising from recent political developments such as Brexit and Donald Trump's presidency. This report analyses how their previous scenarios have stood the test of time, what they missed and what they have learned since.