Research summary report
This paper provides key lessons from research into the effectiveness of anticipatory action carried out in Kenya and Somaliland during a protracted crisis. The research was conducted from 2021–2024 with the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action and sought to better understand how anticipatory action can help prevent extreme weather events from turning into disasters that harm lives, livelihoods, and children’s futures.
The research showed there are compelling reasons to use anticipatory action to protect well-being and where possible livelihoods. However, it also highlighted the critical need to embed anticipatory action into a wider disaster management approach that seeks to monitor, mitigate, anticipate, and respond to risk. To enable women, men, and children to take anticipatory action, early warning must be accessible, trusted, and understood, and options for acting early must be available. To enable systems (e.g. veterinary, water, health, nutrition, education, social protection) to scale up in anticipation of shocks, they must first be well functioning, at scale and inclusive. If these systems are weak during non-crisis periods, they will not be able to adapt to forecasted shocks to serve those in greatest need.
In the project areas, few options existed for positive coping strategies and alternative income-generating options during the crisis. The lack of alternative options, and the lack of other risk reduction measures for flooding, presented clear constraints to anticipatory action. These can only be developed over the long term. Anticipatory action must therefore become a mindset and way of working for humanitarian, development, and climate actors rather than a stand-alone set of interventions.