An independent think piece
With Grand Bargain 3.0 coming to an end in October 2026 and in view of the rapidly changing humanitarian landscape, the Grand Bargain Ambassadors commissioned this independent Think Piece to inform reflections on the future of the process and its platform.
The Think Piece provides a strategic foresight analysis of future humanitarian challenges and humanitarian financing and reform initiatives. It uses a stress testing approach to explore how the humanitarian system might respond to growing pressure and examines whether the architecture is robust enough for what may lie ahead.
Key reflections from the Think Piece include:
- The current humanitarian system was designed for a world of geopolitical consensus, linear crises and steady, discretionary funding that no longer exists.
- The funding crisis in 2025 has exposed structural vulnerabilities and dependencies.
- The gap between reform ambition and systemic ability to change is a key vulnerability.
- Across all three stress-test trajectories, what adapts is not the system itself, but its periphery.
- The humanitarian system faces a choice: adapt to the realities of today’s crises or risk becoming marginalised.
The Emerging Horizon: A new architecture and pathways for action
This moment demands a new humanitarian system that is more plural, more accountable, more demanddriven, more resilient, and more aligned with the realities of today’s crises. Key priorities for action include:
- Reconceptualising humanitarian action
- Differentiated models of humanitarian aid
- Rebuilding legitimate leadership
- Alternative funding models
- Radical simplification
- A focus on performance and results