Three years into the conflict the Syrian economy lies in ruins. This brief argues that, against this backdrop, a war economy is now entrenching itself across the country, particularly in opposition-controlled areas, creating significant new economic networks and business activities that feed off the violence gripping the country. This war economy is to some extent creating incentives for those now making money from the conflict to prolong it. Significant sectors of the economy now live and thrive off the conflict, creating a growing pool of individuals and groups that have no interest in seeing the conflict end. At the same time, however, the Syrian economy is fragmenting as areas controlled by the regime and the opposition become increasingly disconnected from each other. As new interests and power centres emerge, it is increasingly difficult to imagine a return to the strong, centralised state that existed before the conflict. But this fragmentation could also be part of the solution to the conflict – in particular as a way of working towards a new national consensus from the bottom up.