The purpose of this report is to provide an estimate of the economic and social costs of the conflict on Syria and, via its spillover effects, on Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. This report begins by providing an estimate of the cost of the conflict from its beginning to January 2016. It then provides estimates on the future effects of the cost of conflict. The dire economic effects of the conflict, even if it stops tomorrow, will continue well beyond the implementation of a peaceful resolution. This is because the cost of conflict will continue to accumulate for as long as actual levels of GDP remain below what they would have been in the absence of conflict.
Investment is the key to stemming the continuation of the costs associated with the conflict once there is a peaceful resolution. Theories of economic growth and of growth in post-conflict scenarios predict that once conflict has ceased, an economy should recover to close the gap that has developed due to conflict. However, both the extent and speed of recovery in post-conflict Syria will depend on a suitable enabling environment for the resumption of growth-inducing activities, notably investment.
This report presents both the present costs of the conflict and their impact on future growth prospects