Understanding Fragmentation in Conflict and its Impact on Prospects for Peace

Complicated conflicts with many disparate actors have become increasingly common in the international system. The extreme fragmentation of the Syrian opposition in the ongoing civil war embodies this ‘new normal’ for civil wars. Fragmentation affects a number of conflict dynamics, including the turn to violence, internecine conflict among parties, targeting of civilians, collaboration with the state, and the extent to which opposition movements are accommodated. This paper explores the phenomenon of fragmentation in conflict, its known effects on conflict processes and how it affects mediation and settlement success. It centres specifically on the fragmentation of ‘opposition’ movements – those actors that challenge the recognised state in civil wars. The paper highlights a number of key findings about fragmentation and conflict, and the role of mediation in fragmented conflicts.