This report aims to identify the strengths and limitations of UN OCHA’s Anticipatory Action trigger in Ethiopia, by examining both the development process and the effectiveness of the trigger mechanism. Key findings focus on
- streamlining the process for ongoing trigger refinement and development,
- strengthening top-down/bottom-up linkages between the trigger design and targeted action planning processes, and
- iterative adjustment informed by coupling evaluation of the trigger with impact assessment, integrated within the context of Ethiopia’s full humanitarian intervention cycle.
Several timeline tools have been derived from research informed by interviews with stakeholder groups to assist in visualising the trigger cycle and support integration, sequencing and coordination among the technical and implementation partners as part of the on-going trigger assessment and adjustment cycle. Further details on the trigger analysis methods and findings are provided in the full report and appendices. Appendices include a synthesis of key learnings from Ethiopia’s trigger experience that can help to inform anticipatory action trigger development processes elsewhere. Key recommendations based on findings are summarized below, with three timeline tools as visual aids:
- Streamline Ethiopia’s trigger monitoring & continuing development process
- Strengthen top-down/bottom-up linkages between Ethiopia’s trigger design team and targeted action planning teams
The top-down, largely OCHA-driven, trigger design process needs to increasingly involve national stakeholders at key decision points to review and improve Ethiopia’s trigger and in order to build buy-in for demand-driven development and expanding use of the trigger. The trigger design process was not adequately connected w/targeting, resulting in implementation delays following triggering. Clear feedback loops between the trigger design team and targeting team need to inform the continuing process of trigger refinement and development. This will need to take into consideration both the return period of forecasts and the phasing of early action. Building “bottom-up” buy-in through explicit process linkages is also crucial to advance anticipatory action as a fully integrated normalized way of working, and to ensure the sustainability of Ethiopia’s trigger mechanism.