This thematic report provides an integrated analysis of the current and anticipated impacts of prolonged drought conditions in Somalia on the key drivers of malnutrition, including food insecurity, displacement, disease outbreaks and conflict dynamics.
The analysis is released as Somalia enters its 2025 Deyr rainy season (October–December), a period critical for national food and water security. Seasonal forecasts indicate below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, driven by the combined effects of La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)— climatic phenomenons typically associated with severe drought across the Horn of Africa.
Drawing on early warning indicators, climate projections and sectoral evidence, the report illustrates how these drought-related stressors are expected to compound structural vulnerabilities across livelihoods, markets, health and WASH systems, with cascading implications for nutritional outcomes. By situating these risks within the broader humanitarian context, the analysis provides forward-looking insights to support anticipatory action, preparedness planning and the design of targeted, multisectoral interventions aimed at mitigating a likely deterioration in nutrition conditions.