An outlook to 2040
The topic of transformation for aid actors and the aid system is not new. There have been countless initiatives, repeated endeavours and sustained investments into consultations and processes aimed towards transformation. Yet, while it is sometimes treated as such, transformation is a process, not an endpoint. Successful transformations are not measured by the budget allocated or the hours spent debating; they are defined by results. And when we examine those results, the lack of progress is undeniable. Transformation requires moving beyond technical fixes to deeper structural reform. True transformation requires all aid actors to unpack the culture of the aid system and the power dynamics that define it, to rebuild a system that puts communities and local actors at the centre of decision making; valuing their expertise and lived experience, instead of trying to mould them into the image of intermediary actors operating on a smaller scale.
Aid actors must leverage this period of uncertainty brought about by cuts in funding to build on what works, and challenge what does not, in order to cocreate a more just and effective aid system for those who matter most.
The Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation study is being implemented in two phases. The first is an exploratory phase to analyse the changes in the global context and aid system by 2040. To develop this collective intelligence, the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation study has been building a diverse community of participants to reflect the broad spectrum of perspectives and experiences within aid. The high level of engagement from local civil society workers— particularly from the historically underrepresented regions—has reshaped the framing of key debates, moving discussions beyond traditional aid paradigms. Most critically, among the nearly 900 participants, nearly 4 in 10 have lived experience of crises. Outputs of this structured consultation are outlined in this report.
The Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation community identifies 16 global drivers (e.g. climate change, geopolitical shifts, technological disruption) and nine aid-specific ones (e.g. donor dynamics, localisation, ethical shifts) that will shape the aid system by 2040. A triadic framework links destabilisers, community resilience, and aid system configuration to create a typology of crise which are often overlapping and compounding.