What now?

While we come to terms with the enormous shock that the humanitarian system has suffered in 2025, it also bears reminding that the numbers of people affected by crises has continued to grow rapidly throughout the last decade (see Figure 1).

‘Renewing and reimagining humanitarian action with idealism, humility and hope’ (OCHA, 2025f) will require a fundamental change. This includes demanding that insularity and resource competition be replaced by a new level of transparent collaboration (ALNAP, 2025b). It requires a paradigm shift to centre the priorities of populations affected by crisis and the responses that they continue to lead. And it means moving urgently beyond a ‘managed decline’ of existing systems, towards ‘building a collective future’ where international capacities complement domestic ones in ‘new constellations of care’ (Krugman et al, 2025).

As humanitarians look ahead to 2026 and beyond, their capacity to make such critical strategic decisions in the face of uncertainty is undoubtedly undermined – not just by lack of resources but also lack of well-evidenced reflection. There are both anecdotal and projected indications of the impacts of aid cuts: from a rise in morbidity and mortality (Cavalcanti et al, 2025; Clark et al, 2025) to hunger (FAO and WFP, 2025) and sexual violence (ALNAP, 2025a). Yet the full picture of these impacts will likely remain undocumented by international organisations as they withdraw their presence and their gaze from large numbers of deprioritised populations.

Without a more considered attempt to learn from 2025 – and, crucially, to learn from those affected most by the choices that have been made – the humanitarian system’s ability to make difficult judgement calls in the most trusted way is at risk. It will, in the words of a humanitarian worker in Mali, be ‘moving forward blindly’ (ALNAP, 2025a).